Over the weekend, I posited that Nick Heidfeld has not won a race yet because he wasn't aggressive enough in his driving. I was going to prove this by showing that winners have high crash rates. In short: The more aggressive you are, the more likely you are to win (and to crash).
I used data from the last couple of seasons and the results were inconclusive. Reader F1 Outsider astutely suggested that my theory may be correct; I just needed to increase my sample size.
So this is what I've done. Heidfeld began racing in 2000. I looked at every driver who has won a race since then. I then extrapolated their crash rates and their win rates (from 2000 to the present). I compared them to Heidfeld's rates. And this is what I got.*
Click on the chart for an expanded view.
As you can see, my theory is wrong and baseless. There is no correlation between a higher win rate and a higher crash rate. In fact, when you look at the really great drivers-- Alonso, Mika, Hamilton, and Schumacher-- they actually have lower crash rates than the other winners profiled.
*I apologize for the Mickey Mouse chart. I have not made a chart on a computer since 8th grade on my Tandy.
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